The high-stakes game of Formula 1 driver selection is about to explode, and Yuki Tsunoda might be the biggest casualty! Juan Pablo Montoya believes Arvid Lindblad is practically guaranteed a Racing Bulls seat next season. But here's where it gets controversial: who gets the boot to make room? Is it Yuki Tsunoda, despite his recent improvements, or the highly-regarded Liam Lawson? The answer, according to Montoya, isn't just about performance; it's a tangled web of "Red Bull politics."
Montoya is convinced that internal power struggles within Red Bull could be the deciding factor, potentially saving Tsunoda at the expense of Lawson. He points to a potential clash between Helmut Marko, the head of Red Bull's driver development program, and "Red Bull Austria," suggesting that different factions within the organization have conflicting agendas. This raises a crucial question: Should driver selection be based purely on merit, or do political considerations inevitably play a role?
Let's break down the key points:
- Political Maneuvering: Montoya alleges that "politics" are at play, creating a tug-of-war between Marko and Red Bull Austria regarding driver choices.
- Montoya's Perspective: He admits that choosing to retain Tsunoda "wouldn’t be so logical" from a purely performance-based standpoint, yet he still backs the Japanese driver.
- Lawson's Situation: Has Lawson's impressive potential stalled, leaving him vulnerable despite being seen as a future star?
The driver shuffle doesn't stop there. Whispers in the paddock suggest that rookie sensation Isack Hadjar is being lined up to join Max Verstappen at Red Bull next season. PlanetF1.com's sources indicate that Helmut Marko has already communicated this plan to Hadjar, though an official agreement is still pending. But this is the part most people miss: Hadjar's arrival creates a domino effect, potentially leaving Tsunoda without a seat at Red Bull.
But don't count Tsunoda out just yet! He could return to Racing Bulls, the team where he scored a significant portion of his F1 career points (94 out of 115). However, this move would likely mean Liam Lawson's exit, as Montoya believes Marko will push for Lindblad, a Red Bull junior driver currently competing in Formula 2, to take the available Racing Bulls seat.
"I think there is a small chance because of politics, and I don’t want to talk about it here," Montoya stated on the MontoyAS podcast, hinting at the sensitive nature of the situation. He elaborated, "If Helmut made the decisions, I would say that 90% he [Tsunoda] would be out. But right now, things have changed a bit; they are a little more political. Red Bull Austria, it seems to me, wants to have a little more control of what is happening in the team."
He continued, emphasizing the potential for change in decision-making: "So now, how the decisions are made and the things that happen are going to change a bit, especially because there are three seats. Lindblad goes up for sure; it’s whether Yuki leaves or whether Liam Lawson leaves. Theoretically, that is the plan."
Montoya argues that, ideally, the Red Bull line-ups should remain as they are: Verstappen and Tsunoda at Red Bull, and Lawson and Hadjar at Racing Bulls. He acknowledges Tsunoda's initial struggles but highlights his recent improvements, citing four points-scoring finishes in the last seven races, bringing his total to 28 points. While this is significantly less than Verstappen's 341, Montoya believes Tsunoda is showing progress and could further improve with the introduction of new Formula 1 cars next season.
“If you look, Yuki has done a good job compared to what Lawson could have done and what everyone in that Red Bull car has done until now,” Montoya said, adding, “So the work Yuki is doing is not ideal, but he has improved. So, if they give Yuki one more year, I think Yuki will be able to start aligning things. So it wouldn’t be so logical to take him out. And Lawson and Hadjar are finishing in the points, both of them.”
Montoya adds a crucial caveat: "Where Helmut doesn’t have 100 per cent control of the decisions, everything is not so clear."
He summarizes the dilemma: "If you look at it from the outside, if you take Helmut out of there and look at the results of the four drivers they have for three seats, they deserve to continue. So the problem is that there is a lot of politics and everything. On one hand, I think Yuki still has very strong political ties within Red Bull that can keep him there, and on the other hand, everyone still has a bit of a chance there. If they were to take someone out, the most probable would be Yuki."
However, Tsunoda's dream of staying with the same team appears to be fading as Hadjar is heavily favored to replace him. This promotion could mark the end of Tsunoda's journey within the Red Bull organization.
Christian Horner, the team principal, previously suggested that Lawson had more potential than Tsunoda, explaining why Lawson was chosen over Tsunoda for a Red Bull seat last year. Horner also hinted that Tsunoda's time at Racing Bulls was limited if he wasn't being groomed for a future Red Bull promotion.
"We’re acutely aware that if we’re not able to provide an opportunity for Yuki in all honesty this year, does it [keeping him on] make sense?," Horner said at the time. "You can’t have a driver in the support team for five years. You can’t always be the bridesmaid. You’ve either got to let them go at that point or look at something different."
Now, after failing to match Verstappen's performance, Tsunoda's Red Bull dream might be coming to an end, potentially leading to his exit from Formula 1 altogether. While he has been linked to a reserve role at Aston Martin in 2026 due to Honda becoming their engine partner, these links remain speculative.
So, what do you think? Is Red Bull's driver selection process fair, or are "politics" unfairly influencing the decisions? Should Tsunoda be given another chance, or is it time for Lawson to finally get his shot? And, perhaps the most controversial question of all: Is Helmut Marko's influence on the team ultimately beneficial, or is it stifling other talented drivers? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
